Scientists claim this simple blood test may predict death in next 10 years

A team of European researchers has developed a simple blood test which they claim can give 83% accurate prediction of death, according to a study published in of the high impact journals, Nature Communications.

This blood test is nothing but a simple metabolomics platform to identify metabolic predictors of long-term mortality. Prior study conducted by Fischer and colleagues used a high-throughput and well-standardized nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) platform and identified four metabolic biomarkers, i.e., albumin, glycoprotein acetyls (GlycA), mean diameter for very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) particles and citrate that are independently associated with all-cause and cause-specific (cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer) mortality. The limitations of that study were its statistical power which was limited due to the relatively small number of observed deaths and under-representation of older individuals.

In the present study, the authors claim this to be the largest so far that include 44,168 individuals (from 12 cohorts), spanning a wide age range. The authors first determined which metabolic biomarkers independently associate with prospective mortality in all individuals and Subsequently, they tested the association of the biomarkers with mortality in different age strata.

In the FINRISK 1997 cohort, consisting of 7603 individuals of whom 1213 died during follow-up, the authors compared the predictive value of a score based on the identified mortality-associated biomarkers with a score based on conventional risk factors for mortality.

Surprisingly, the authors found that the prediction accuracy of 5- and 10-year mortality based on a model containing the identified biomarkers and sex is better than that of a model containing conventional risk factors for mortality.

Key Findings of the Study

• By performing high-throughput metabolic biomarker profiling in 44,168 individuals from 12 cohorts, the authors identified a set of 14 biomarkers independently associating with all-cause mortality.


• The associations of these biomarkers were consistent in men and women and across age strata.


• The identified biomarkers represent general health up to the highest ages rather than specific disease-related death causes.


• In combination, these biomarkers clearly improve risk prediction of 5- and 10-year mortality as compared to conventional risk factors across all ages.


• These results suggest that metabolic biomarker profiling could potentially be used to guide patient care if further validated in relevant clinical settings.

Summing up the results, the authors concluded that the use of the identified metabolic profile as a predictor of mortality or surrogate endpoint in clinical studies needs further investigation.

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Nature Communications.